A mere 60 days prior that the young forward found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as his coach admonished him over not reading a pass in behind. During that period, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether his performances were a symptom or a cause for the side's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the manager's outburst was entirely much more joyous. When Rogers curled home his second to restore Villa's lead, Emery discarded his coat, opened his arms and roared. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning any of their first six games, now sit just three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Hopefuls?
It remains a particularly tough query to resolve. History, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, they have not been wholly dominant during this run, while the wins have stacked up.
Per the data, on just two occasions have Villa posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club which has put together ten consecutive victories, the Villans appear weirdly vulnerable – however at the moment the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy appears to be to exchange chances with rivals before hoping Rogers to rescue them with two crisp finishes. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred in London, and it happened versus United.
His opener stemmed from a brilliant finish, curled just inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of his first capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent Villa must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers forever.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is an alternative path where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent could transform into the player he resembled in Germany.
- The defensive duo are set to regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable the team would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly two months ago, few could imagine the midfielder as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title and appearing as a crucial player for the national team.
This winning streak must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the hero faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.
