A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
